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Superforecasting

by Dan Gardner, Philip E. Tetlock
RM53.02 MYR
Superforecasting - Thryft
Superforecasting - Thryft
  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.

Superforecasting

by Dan Gardner, Philip E. Tetlock
RM53.02 MYR
ISBN: 9781847947147
Authors: Dan Gardner, Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Random House Books
Date of Publication: 2015-09-24
Format: Paperback
Related Collections: Economics, Science, Politics, Personal Development, Business
Related Topics: Finance, Mathematics, Psychology, Personal Development, Business, Psychology, Personal Development, Self Help, Finance
Goodreads rating: 4.08
(rated by 19910 readers)

Description

What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
Condition guide

Book Condition Guide

Books in Like New Condition

This book may contain very minor cosmetic defects, but it is in pristine condition. There should be no yellowing, no foxing, no water damage, and no annotations of any kind on the cover and the pages. For paperbacks, there should not be any crease marks on the spine. This book is good as new — lucky you!

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Very Good Condition

This book has been used, but it is still in a clean condition. There should be no foxing or annotations of any kind on the inner pages, but a sparse amount may be present on the cover, title pages, or outside edges of the book. There should be no water damage of any kind. For paperbacks, there may be light crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Good Condition

We do our best to ensure the quality of our books, but there is no escaping the wear and tear that comes with time. Slight foxing and some annotations may be present on the pages and the cover. There should be no water damage of any kind. For paperbacks, there may be several crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

Books in Well Read Condition

This is a well-read book, which means that the previous owner probably really enjoyed it! The cover and pages may include moderate foxing and annotations, but the text is not obscured and still readable. Moderate cosmetic defects and minor water damage may be present on the edges of the book. For paperbacks, there may be multiple crease marks on the spine.

*Books may be missing bundle media (e.g. CD, e-book code), if included.

 

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  • Financial Times Business Book of the Year Nominee for Longlist (2015)
Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.