Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway

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Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.

Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway

Regular price RM49.58 MYR
Unit price
per
ISBN: 9780753522363
Authors: Dan Gardner
Publisher: Virgin Publishing
Date of Publication: 2011-01-01
Format: Paperback
Related Collections: Economics, Science, Politics, History, Sociology
Goodreads rating: 3.79
(rated by 709 readers)

Description

In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future--everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
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Note: While we do our best to ensure the accuracy of cover images, ISBNs may at times be reused for different editions of the same title which may hence appear as a different cover.